The Bureau and the Executive Board of
the UNECE Gas Centre set up a task force on security of gas supply
matters. The goal of this task force was to analyse the prospects
for preserving the gas market in the European part of the UNECE
area in the long run and to make recommendations to ensure reliable
and secure gas supplies in the future. It was not the intention
to make new forecasts about natural gas supply and demand nor
to develop new scenarios. The task force has prepared this report
against the background of an increasing awareness of security
of energy and gas supplies. There are a number of reasons for
this:
-
Growing dependence
on imports: Based on IEA, EU and OGP data, as well as the UNECE
Gas Centre best estimates, Western and Central Europe are expected
to increase their imports from 50% today to 70% in 2020 to 80-90%
in 2030;
-
Growing challenges
in putting the gas on stream and bringing it to the markets:
Production costs are increasing, transport and transit problems
must be solved, the infrastructure must be developed further,
the existing infrastructure has to be maintained and improved.
In the whole natural gas chain large investments are needed;
-
Uncertainty on the
full implications of market liberalization: Changes in the European
gas market, mainly triggered by the liberalization process,
will lead to new structures and a redistribution of responsibilities.
There is a consensus in the UNECE Gas
Centre that the present and future challenges of supply security
can and must essentially be met on an entrepreneurial basis and
in keeping with the principle of subsidiarity.
Long-term take-or-pay contracts provide a solid basis for contractual
portfolios and the necessary high upfront investments in production
and infrastructure. The complementary aspect of long-term take-or-pay
commitments that make major import projects realisable in the
first place is the entitlement of importers to corresponding gas
volumes. It is generally assumed that in such contracts oil-linked
pricing – as a synonym for competitive pricing - will remain
the key reference for gas prices.
One of the key policy elements of the
gas industry for the security of natural gas supply is diversification
(supplier, infrastructure).
In the opinion of the UNECE Gas Centre, the governmental level
- national and supranational alike - should provide support above
all by creating and ensuring a suitable political framework. Such
a framework should be geared towards stability and calculability
and foster a favourable investment climate. For the UNECE Gas
Centre – its point of view being in line with other organisations
such as Eurogas or OGP - there are essential conditions for adequate
security of supply:
-
A stable and predictable
regulatory and policy framework;
-
Clear roles and responsibilities
and a level playing field for all market
participants;
-
A positive investment
climate;
-
Contractual freedom;
-
High efficiency.
Governments are recommended to give top priority to:
-
Stable international
relations;
-
Consistent energy pricing
including a favourable fiscal regime;
-
Predictable but limited
number of new laws and regulations.
Although security of supply is highly important, it should be
remembered that it is not the only goal of energy policy. Security
of supply must be durably reconciled with the requirements of
competitiveness and economic viability as well as environmental
protection for the purpose of keeping Europe supplied with energy
on a sustainable basis.
When coping with these challenges, a key element is – in
line with the basic market system and for the sake of efficient
energy supply – a clear division of roles between the business
and political sectors:
-
Providing the requisite
energy and planning, building and operating the necessary infrastructure
are the responsibility of companies themselves;
-
Governmental policy-makers
have the duty to establish and preserve an appropriate framework
that is directed towards stability and predictability and creates
a favourable climate for investment in energy infrastructure.
The chief goal should be to strengthen
the ability and readiness of companies to
maintain a high degree of supply security in both the short and
long term and even
improve it by safeguarding their supply base, achieving a reasonable
degree of flexibility
and providing a reliable infrastructure.
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