2. Demand development

In 2001, the total primary energy demand in the Western and Central European countries ³ was 1757 MTOE [1890 Bcm (equivalent)], the total primary energy demand in the countries with an economy in transition ⁴ (including the Russian Federation) was in 2001: 1046 MTOE [1125 Bcm (equivalent)] respectively.

In 2001, natural gas accounted for 22% (415 Bcm) of the total primary energy demand in Western and Central Europe. In the countries with an economy in transition the percentage of natural gas was 48% (540 Bcm).

Based on the Reference Scenario of the IEA ⁵ , the Western and Central European countries are projected to have a natural gas average growth of 2.1% per year during the period 2000-2030 (high during the first decade, coming down during the second decade and even more during the third decade).

In the countries with an economy in transition (including the Russian Federation), the natural gas share of the total energy market is already higher. The average growth rate per year is projected to be lower, 1.5% during the period 2000-2030 (also in these countries the growth rate declines during this period). In the Western and Central European countries in 2030, the total gas demand is projected to be 773 Bcm (33% of the total primary energy demand). In the countries with an economy in transition the total gas demand in 2030 is projected to be 818 Bcm (51% of the total primary energy demand).

The increase in future gas demand is closely connected to active market development. The expected market developments are based on natural gas being the favorite carbon fuel for economic as well as environmental reasons. Key elements are also the very successful and swift gas market development in the past and the great reliability of gas supply. More and more households, large end consumers and even transporters - private and public - will benefit from the use of natural gas as long as natural gas is available and competitive. Natural gas being the fuel choice also for power generation will improve the diversity of the fuel mix on the energy market, which in turn will enhance security of energy supply.