Total recoverable gas reserves in EU
countries and non-EU countries are declining during the present
period (2000-2010) but they are doing so more slowly than overall
consumption might indicate. An important reason for this development
stems from the innovation in production techniques which allows
production to come from more remote areas with challenging geographical
features and climatic conditions.
The reserves in Russia are expected even to be a
bit higher in 2010 than in 2000 as a result of intensive exploration programmes
and the introduction of new exploration and production techniques. In all
EU countries with a considerable indigenous production together, the reserve
position will decrease. In some countries, the decrease of reserves has already
changed the overall supply pattern as in the UK that has become a net importer
of gas. In other countries, it is expected to take at least 25 to 50 years
before arriving at a level where no substantial volumes are available anymore
as the Netherlands. Norway is expected first to increase its export level
considerably during the coming years.
The reserve position of non-EU countries,
like Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Iran and countries in Central-Asia
and Western
Africa show ample reserves during the coming decades. In the
Gas Centre report of 2003 on Security of Natural Gas Supply it
was indicated, based on information of the Oil and Gas Producers
Association (Natural Gas Reserve Report 2003 and updated information
by Gazprom later that year on their recoverable reserves), that
natural gas reserves are expected to be available for the ECE
region for about the coming hundred years.The recent considerable
increase in oil prices provides for additional energy reserves
being explored which are expected to be profitable now. As natural
gas is sold in almost all mature markets based on market value
(reflecting the costs for the consumer of the alternative fuel),
higher producer returns stimulate additional production from
a reservoir presently in production as the economic cut off point
in many reservoirs will be delayed. These specific circumstances
are expected to even improve the overall reserve/production ratio
to more than the one hundred years mentioned earlier.
In line with the expected annual growth
of the gas market in the ECE region of about 2%*, the countries
that are exporting gas to the EU countries are planning to increase
their production in this 10 year period between 2000 and 2010.
Russia by 15% and Norway by more than 100% (including LNG).
The Netherlands is expected to maintain its present production level, which means
that its gas available for export will remain on about the same
level (approximately 45-50 bcm/year).
Production in countries like Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, Austria and Hungary
is decreasing. Poland is expecting an increase of its natural
production, as is Ireland, although both countries have only
limited indigenous production. In the Ukraine, gas production
is expected to increase by some 30% to 24 bcm in 2010, while
Romania will produce a volume of some 7 bcm less in 2010.
In order to achieve the planned production
levels, enormous investments will have to be made. The level
of some 25 billion Euro in the year 2000 by the main production
countries as mentioned by the IEA is expected to increase considerably
during the period until 2010. In Russia, upstream investments
are expected to double during this decade. With reference to
the UNECE Gas Centre report on Security of Natural Gas Supply
* IEA World Energy Outlook 2002 as reflected in the UNECE Gas
Centre report on Security of Natural Gas Supply (2003) (Geneva
2003) gas resources outside Europe, which could be exported to
Europe, amount to some 180,000 Bcm.
In summary, the OGP figures are (Bcm)
| Area |
Reserves |
Discovered Potential |
Undiscovered Potential |
Total |
| Europe |
6052 |
2950 |
4464 |
13466 |
| Africa |
6544 |
4942 |
7240 |
18726 |
| Middle East |
15410 |
33760 |
23950 |
73120 |
| FSU |
32960 |
14906 |
29830 |
77696 |
| Caribbean |
850 |
142 |
1100 |
2092 |
