In many EU countries the share of natural gas in total primary energy consumption is expected to grow between 2 and 10% during the coming 5 years. Some countries are more or less at their maximum level, such as the Netherlands and the United Kingdom (the Netherlands being at a level of more than 50%). The overall market share in the EU will be around 25% in the year 2010. At the moment the market share is 22%.

In non-EU countries a similar development is expected. Russia, Romania and the Republic of Moldova are expected to keep their present share of natural gas in total energy consumption more or less stable (Russia being at approximately 50%). In 2010, Ukraine will be at a level comparable with that of the Netherlands, which is also some 50%. Turkey is planning to increase the share of natural gas in total energy use from 17% in 2000 to 29% in 2010.
Only a few countries are net gas exporters. These countries are: Russia, Norway and the Netherlands. In 2004, the United Kingdom changed its position from being a net exporter to being a net importer.

The Netherlands is expected to keep its net export level at about the same level as during the past 20 to 30 years. Russia is also planning to export some 40% more in 2010 than in 2000. About half of this additional export volume will be provided for by imports from Central Asia and by substituting natural gas by other fuels in its indigenous market if possible.

This indicates a level of investment during the coming years comparable to previous years. Taking into account a steady growth of the gas market and increasing high load factor imports from outside Europe this means a decreasing security of supply

Norway will also increase its exports considerably during the next decades. One of its new projects, Snøhvit, is an LNG-project. Gas from Snøhvit might be exported to markets outside Europe, such as the United States of America. Algeria is preparing to increase its export volume by developing new projects and bringing new reserves onstream. So are Qatar and Nigeria

For strategic as well as commercial reasons, most EU-countries consider that future imports will have to come also from new gas producing countries such as Egypt, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, (Islamic Republic of) Iran and Yemen with an option for LNG. Diversification of supply, including new LNG projects, will be considered in relation to costs. Normally, low cost projects will be developed first. However, an important additional aspect of LNG is its supply flexibility and the value of this flexibility in comparison with pipeline supply. This supply flexibility will also influence the supply price level through arbitrage between for instance the United States of America market and Europe, as well as on a global scale.

Calculations show that in comparison with offshore pipelines LNG is cheaper when the transportation distance is over 1500 km. In comparison with onshore pipelines the distance is over 4500 km. (For a list of new/potential LNG projects, see Annex 2). The Suez Canal is often seen as a major bottleneck, which could be an important element in future LNG projects in Europe with gas coming from the Middle East.